Svalbard Weather & Sea ice
How to forecast weather and sea ice in Svalbard
Weather and sea ice conditions in Svalbard can change dramatically from week to week, and even within hours. Reliable systems and routines for monitoring weather and sea ice forecasts are crucial for planning and executing safe photo expeditions to Svalbard.
Since 2006, we at WildPhoto Travel have gained extensive experience during our 150+ photography expeditions around Svalbard with ships. Our top priority is always safety, which means avoiding bad weather conditions and ensuring we don't get stuck in sea ice. Secondly, we aim to reach our target photography areas as quickly and efficiently as possible to secure great images of polar bears, seals, whales, birds, other wildlife, and landscapes. Finally, we strive to ensure high comfort for our 12 guests onboard.
Below, we have summarised the best services for forecasting weather (wind and waves) and sea ice services that we use daily. Learn more about how to understand and forecast the weather in the Arctic.
 | Text & Photo by Ole J Liodden Last updated: 02. July 2025 |
Svalbard Sea Ice Conditions and Forecasting
Sea ice around Svalbard varies considerably from year to year. This means that sea ice conditions from the previous year will not automatically indicate what to expect in coming years. Historical data provides some expectation, but wind direction, waves, and water temperature have an enormous impact on sea ice formation. With ongoing climate warming, this is particularly visible in Svalbard.
The maximum extent of sea ice typically occurs in March, before it slowly begins to melt in April and May. By June, the northern parts of Spitsbergen and Hinlopen Strait are usually open, with sea ice remaining in the fjords. In early July, the sea ice connected to the northeastern parts of Svalbard (Nordaustlandet) is also melting or pushed north, with accessibility extending all the way to Storøya. Depending on wind direction and sea temperature, sea ice in late summer and autumn will normally be positioned between 82°N and 83°N, which requires at least 12 hours by expedition ship to reach the pack ice from the Svalbard archipelago.
With global warming, sea ice around Svalbard is forming later than it did 2-3 decades ago. Whilst freezing previously occurred in Hinlopen and eastern parts of Svalbard around mid-October, this has now been delayed to November or December, with some years as late as January.
The sea ice maps below for the Svalbard area and Isfjorden/Bellsund are typically updated daily around 16:00 UTC by the Norwegian Ice Service, except at weekends and on public holidays. Blue and white colours represent open, ice-free waters; green indicates areas with very open drifting sea ice. Yellow and orange represent denser sea ice concentrations, where ice-strengthened vessels are necessary for navigation. Red indicates closed drifting sea ice, where ships should not enter, and grey represents non-drifting sea ice, mainly found during winter and spring in the fjords.
Wind Patterns and Weather Systems in Svalbard
Wind forecasting in Svalbard is vital for planning which areas to visit (and not) in the coming days. It is essential for safety and comfort to adapt itineraries to expected and changing weather and wind conditions. Strong winds in the Arctic, combined with waves and freezing temperatures, can be dangerous and must be avoided. Even moderate winds can make zodiac excursions, landings, and life aboard uncomfortable, so adapting itineraries to current and expected wind forecasts is important.
However, no wind is not always optimal in the Arctic. During summer with weak southerly winds, the likelihood of fog near the drifting sea ice (pack ice) increases. It is usually preferable to have slightly more wind, or at least winds not from the south, to avoid fog that reduces visibility and photography opportunities. Whether the weather forecast predicts sunshine or cloud cover is less important in the Arctic than wind strength and direction.
Typically, strong weather systems pass Svalbard quite quickly and last no more than a couple of days, though winter and autumn may bring more consecutive days of rough weather and wind.
Several services provide reliable wind forecasts, but Windy is the system we have relied upon for many years during our photography expeditions in Svalbard. The Windy app is free to download and provides highly reliable wind forecasts, particularly for the coming 1-2 days. One advantage of this system is the ability to zoom out and observe larger weather systems and their movement direction. You can also easily see wind direction and strength (represented by colours).
We typically plan our photography expeditions in areas with blue (no wind) or green (maximum 10 m/s wind) conditions to ensure comfortable journeys. Sometimes we must navigate areas with winds exceeding 10 m/s, but we then attempt to position the ship so winds (and waves) approach from the front or rear rather than the side. In situations with winds exceeding 15 m/s, it is preferable to find a sheltered fjord or area and wait several hours until conditions calm.
Below is also a service for historical wind data, provided by Cameron Beccario in the earth.nullschool.net project. This system is useful for viewing wind data for specific dates. Simply click on the Earth legend and choose the date in the Control row.
Wave Predictions and Maritime Safety in Svalbard
Waves follow wind and weather systems. With an expedition ship, waves exceeding 1 metre become uncomfortable, but wave direction is equally important. Waves hitting the ship from the front, up to approximately 30 degrees deviation on either side, are much more manageable than waves from the side. Waves of 1-2 metres approaching from the front or rear of the ship will not be uncomfortable for most passengers, but when waves exceed 2 metres, smaller ships will experience more pronounced up-and-down movement.
It is therefore important to avoid large waves wherever possible and not simply find the fastest route from A to B, but also the safest and most comfortable. Windy is an excellent tool also for wave predictions, with areas in blue showing less than 2 metres within the comfort zone, whilst areas with waves exceeding 2 metres are marked in pink or red. The earth.nullschool.net project also provides historical wave data for those seeking specific past weather information.
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WildPhoto Travel is a leading photo expedition company - specialized in polar regions. Since 2006, we have offered great photo opportunities for our guests and partners.
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